国际技术溢出对中国工业碳排放的影响研究

Scholars at home and abroad have made lots of researches on the effects of FDI and international trade on the carbon emission of host country，and they discussed that FDI and international trade mainly through the influence of scale effect，composition effect and technical effect on carbon emission of host country.Based on this，Scholars abroad have made further studies on the different technical effects of different international spillover channels on the carbon emission of host country，however，seldom domestic studies is on this topic，only one or two papers has preliminarily investigated this topic from the perspective of technology horizontal spillover channel from FDI，therefore this paper takes China industry as sample to extend and resupply，and makes systematic and in-depth study of inner mechanism of the effects of international technology spillovers on the carbon emission of industrial energy consumption in China，which has deep theoretical value.The Twelfth Five-Year Plan proposes the state strategy about how to cope with the international climate change，which means that China should make full use of technology advancement，improve system mechanism and policy system，and carry out pragmatic cooperation in scientific research，technology research and development and capacity building through strengthening international exchange in the field of climate change.It has become a general consensus that middle-long period carbon emission reduction of energy consumption could be enhanced through technology innovation of low carbon.The main problems exists in the field of carbon emission reduction of industrial energy consumption recently in China are as follows.Firstly，the high carbon lock-in effect universally exists in industrialized countries.Secondly，the technology innovation basis of low carbon is weak，nearly seventy percent of core technology types of low carbon relies on the import.Thirdly，technology innovation path of low carbon is separated from the economic condition in China.All of these cause the dilemma of the insufficient of technology innovation ability of low carbon，if China could pay attention to the optimization of the technology paths during the course of international transfer and diffusion of technology of low carbon，this dilemma could be alleviated.Based on this point，this paper studies the policy transition，objectives and contents which do benefits to optimize the paths of carbon emission of industrial energy consumption reduction technology innovation from the perspective of international technology spillover channels in China.The content of this paper is mainly surrounding the following aspects：Firstly，this paper tries to review the basis of theoretical research related with Low-Carbon economics，summarizes and comments the literatures and research progresses in the fields of the researches on the effects of technology advancement on ecological environment，and the effects of FDI and international trade on ecological environment.Secondly，this paper analyzes the inner mechanism of the effects of international technology spillovers on carbon emission of industrial energy consumption，builds up a general equilibrium model to make an in-depth analysis.Thirdly，this paper estimates the current situation of carbon emission of industrial energy consumption from multiple angles，including carbon emissions of industrial energy consumption，carbon emission intensity of industrial energy consumption，carbon emission performance of industrial energy consumption，carbon emissions embodied in the trade，low-carbon economy index and driving forces of carbon emissions of industrial energy consumption.Fourthly，carbon emission intensity of industrial energy consumption is used to characterize industrial carbon emission reduction technology，and this paper examines the effects of technology spillovers from FDI and international trade on industrial carbon abatement based on the panel data from industrial sectors.Besides，this paper examines the technical effects of FDI on carbon emissions embodied in the trade and low-carbon economy index.Fifthly，carbon emission performance of industrial energy consumption is used to characterize industrial carbon emission reduction technology，and this paper examines the effects of technology spillovers from FDI and international trade on industrial carbon abatement based on the panel data from industrial sectors and provincial industry.Specifically，this paper is divided into 7 chapters.Chapter Ⅰis introduction.This chapter presents the research background，research significance in theory and practice，proposes the research train of thought，including research objective，research skeleton，research content and research method，summarizes research innovation，and points out the future direction for further research.Chapter Ⅱ is literature review.This chapter firstly introduces the theoretic basis of Low-Carbon economics related with the research，including ecological footprint theory，decoupling theory of resources and environment and theory of the environmental Kuznets curve，neo-classic economic growth theory and endogenous growth theory that embraced the environmental factors，which reflect analysis of ecological environment and the relationship between economic development and ecological environment，then this chapter reviews and collates literatures at home and abroad about the effects of technology advancement，FDI and international trade on ecological environment respectively，based on these，this chapter also arranges the recent research findings abroad about the different technical effects of different international spillover channels on the carbon emission of host country，and domestic elementary research status.Finally，this chapter makes a brief review and research prospect.Chapter Ⅲ is inner mechanism.This chapter builds up the theoretic analysis framework of a general equilibrium about the effect of technical factor on ecological environment，the result indicates that carbon emissions is determined by the factors of economic scale，industrial structure and carbon emission intensity，based on this，this chapter sets production function into Cobb-Douglas production function form，deduces the determining factors of industrial structure and carbon emission intensity according to the condition of cost optimal decision，and substitutes the determining factors of industrial structure and carbon emission intensity into the equation which determines carbon emissions.The result directly reflects that economic scale and per capital stock has promotion effects on carbon emissions，however，independent research and development innovation，FDI，international trade and carbon emissions tax and charge have negative effects on carbon emissions.In order to further effectively distinguish the effects of FDI and international trade on carbon emission reduction，this chapter divides FDI elasticity and international trade elasticity of carbon emissions into scale effect，composition effect and technical effect respectively.Finally，this chapter makes theoretic discuss on the influence paths of technology spillovers of FDI and international trade on carbon emission of industrial energy consumption，and thus proposes hypothesis 1-7.Chapter Ⅳ is the construction，measurement and decomposition of indexes.This chapter firstly constructs the measure indexes of technology spillover path of FDI and international trade based on the input-output tables，estimates the change regulation of carbon emission of industrial energy consumption in China from multiple angles，including the indexes of carbon emissions，carbon emission intensity and carbon emission performance of industrial energy consumption，carbon emissions embodied in the trade，low-carbon economy index，and makes a further discussion about the driving forces of carbon emissions of industrial energy consumption.Results show that，first place，the year 2005 is taken as the line of demarcation of change regulation of carbon emissions of industrial energy consumption，the year before the index keeps constant，but the year after the index of most industrial sectors shows an up trend obviously.Second place，carbon emission intensity of industrial energy consumption tends to volatility-downward trend as a whole，and the index of most industrial sectors appears a slight rebound in 2004.Third place，carbon emission performance of industrial energy consumption in middle and western region is higher than the index in eastern region，among which，the improvement of carbon emission performance of industrial energy consumption in middle and western region is mainly depended on technology progress，but the improvement of carbon emission performance of industrial energy consumption in eastern region is mainly depended on technology efficiency advancement.Fourth place，the change regulation of carbon emission performance of industrial energy consumption shows obvious heterogeneous in different sectors.Then the research on the driving forces of carbon emissions of industrial energy consumption indicates that production technology effect and composition effect obviously reduce carbon emissions of industrial energy consumption，on the contrary，scale effect and compositional production technology effect evidently increase carbon emissions of industrial energy consumption，and the other factors have no evident effect on carbon emissions of industrial energy consumption.Chapter Ⅴ examines the effects of international technology spillovers on carbon emission intensity of industrial energy consumption.Firstly，the estimations of hypothesis 1-3 presented in Chapter Ⅲ refer to the train of thought of Grossman and Krueger in 1991，sets static and dynamic model in order to examine the effects of FDI technology spillovers on carbon emission abatement，and evaluates the influence of these industry characters such as research and development intensity，ownership structure and industrial structure on the effect of FDI technology spillovers on the industrial carbon abatement.Conclusions are as follows：the effect of technology horizontal spillover from FDI are not obvious，technology forward spillover from FDI lowers carbon emission intensity of industrial energy consumption in short term but obviously promotes the long-term carbon emission intensity of industrial energy consumption，but technology backward spillover from FDI decreases carbon emission intensity of industrial energy consumption，among which，research and development intensity and industrial structure have obvious promotion effects on technology vertical spillovers from FDI，while ownership structure has negative effect on technology vertical spillovers from FDI.Then the estimations of hypothesis 4-7 presented in Chapter Ⅲ are according to the similar train of thought.This chapter examines technology spillover effects of international trade on carbon emission intensity and carbon emissions of industrial energy consumption，evaluates the influence of these industry characters such as research and development intensity，ownership structure and carbon emission intensity on the effects of technology forward spillover from import and technology backward spillover from export on the industrial carbon abatement.Result shows that，technology horizontal spillover from import has significant promotion effect on carbon emission intensity of industrial energy consumption，but technology backward spillover from export has obvious negative effect on carbon emission intensity of industrial energy consumption，among which，research and development intensity and ownership structure have obvious negative effects on technology horizontal spillover from import，while ownership structure also has negative effect on technology backward spillover from export.Apart from these，FDI industrial structure plays a dominant role in the carbon emissions of China's foreign trade，more specific，the change of FDI industrial structure enhances the growth of the carbon emissions of China's foreign trade；carbon emissions embodied in the trade intensity effect of investment continues to decrease，and the declining rate becomes larger；the effect of the change of FDI quantity effect is unstable，and there are no obvious relationship between them.Meanwhile，both FDI and OFDI have promoting effects on China's low-carbon development，and the difference in these promoting effects is caused by the difference in effect pathway.Chapter Ⅵ examines the effects of international technology spillovers on carbon emission performance of industrial energy consumption.The main distinction between this chapter and Chapter Ⅴ is the different choice of index reflecting abatement technology of carbon emission level.This chapter sets model referring to train of thought of Grossman and Krueger in 1991，and estimates the effects of FDI and international trade technology spillovers on carbon emission abatement for different regions and sectors.The research result indicates that for three areas，the intensity and direction of effects appears obvious heterogeneous indifferent regions.FDI technology spillovers suppresses technology progress，but FDI technology vertical spillovers promote the advancement of technology efficiency，and the effect of FDI technology forward spillover effect is higher than the effect of FDI technology backward spillover.Technology horizontal spillover from export suppresses technology progress，but technology horizontal spillover and backward spillover from export have promotion effects on the advancement of technology efficiency.Technology horizontal spillover from import hinder the improvement of technology efficiency，but technology forward spillover from import have promotion effect on technology efficiency.Finally，this chapter illustrates the relationship among carbon emissions，carbon emission intensity and carbon emission performance，sums up the results of estimation of Chapter Ⅴ and this chapter，and makes in-depth cause analysis according to these results.Chapter Ⅶ refers to main conclusions and policy recommendations.This chapter reviews the inner mechanism of the effect of international technology spillovers on carbon emission abatement and estimation results，based on these，presents the improving path of innovation ability of low carbon in China from the perspective of international technology spillovers，which is surrounding the construction and consummation the following platforms，including “industry-education-research-application” innovation platform，industry chain integration platform and institution platform of investment and management environment in order to cultivate innovation ability of low carbon in China sustainably.It is necessary to set down equal and effective mechanism of the carbon emissions reduction，make the reasonable policy of encouraging foreign investment，enhance the improvement of low carbon technology from FDI industrial linkages channel and realize the clean production of industrial chain in order to reduce the depression of the international transfer of carbon emissions reduction，optimize industrial distribution structure and source structure of FDI，and enhances the promotion effects of FDI and international trade technology spillover on carbon emission abatement of industrial energy consumption in China to the utmost extent through the adjustment of industrial structure and regional structure of FDI and international trade.Key words：FDI；International Trade；Carbon Emission Intensity；Carbon Emission Performance；Technology Progress；Technology efficiency

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