基于生态文明建设的低碳发展评价方法

摘要：在国家大力倡导生态文明建设的背景下，低碳发展已成为各级政府社会经济政策制定的客观要求。面对全球气候变化和国内资源环境压力，国家经济政策和行业政策的制定都凸显了低碳发展的重要性和必要性。2010—2017年，国家发展改革委组织开展了三批国家低碳试点工作，要求以加快推进生态文明建设、绿色发展、积极应对气候变化为目标，以实现碳排放峰值目标、控制碳排放总量、探索低碳发展模式、践行低碳发展路径为主线，以建立健全低碳发展制度、推进能源优化利用、打造低碳产业体系、推动城乡低碳化建设和管理、加快低碳技术研发与应用、形成绿色低碳的生活方式和消费模式为重点，探索低碳发展的模式创新、制度创新、技术创新和工程创新，强化基础能力支撑，开展低碳试点的组织保障工作，引领和示范全国低碳发展。低碳发展是一项系统工程，低碳评价方法学是一项融合数值模拟、数据库开发、应用软件开发等多领域、多层次人员构成的复杂系统工程，国家迫切需要一个能综合反映碳排放与社会经济发展的应用技术手段衡量国内低碳发展过程中存在的矛盾与问题，同时与国外低碳排放国家相比较，也迫切需要采取有效手段减缓在提升国内发展中的碳排放，从而实现社会经济持续发展与温室气体减排的有机统一。通过构建包括低碳产出、低碳消费、低碳资源、环境质量、社会影响、政策影响等指标组成的指标体系，以及低碳、近零碳和零碳发展的案例分析，不但有利于进一步落实应对气候变化国家自主贡献目标，努力控制温室气体排放，提高适应气候变化的能力，而且也为深度参与全球治理、指导地方低碳发展实践提供有益借鉴。关键词：生态文明；低碳发展；零碳发展；评价方法Abstract: In order to better promote ecological civilization construction,low-carbon development has become a hot topic with the growing challenges posed by climate change.However,the extensive in-depth studies on the definition and evaluation methodology of low carbon development have not yet been conducted.Low-carbon evaluation methodology is a systematic engineering including digital simulation,database development,application software development and so on,involved multi-domains and multi-level personnel constitutes.Although there are lots of evaluation methodology about energy,environment and economy,it is also quite weak in China's related research.Moreover along with the social economy and the environmental science research,evaluation methodology structure and the parameter with difficulty adapts to the new environmental science development demand.Especially after low-carbon economy proposed,China needs to synthesize carbon emissions factors to solve the contradiction among socio-economic development and applied technology method urgently.Low carbon development is a form that has both achieved a high level of carbon productivity and human development,which is correlated with an economy's development level as well as driving forces such as resource endowment,technological advancement,consumption behavior and environmental policy.On the basis of exploring the concept and key driving factors of low carbon development,possible indicators will be used to evaluate low-carbon development,and further develops an indicator system with six different dimensions: low-carbon outputs,low-carbon consumption,low-carbon resources,environmental quality,social influence and low-carbon policies.The indicator system is tested with case study of low-carbon development status and potentials.Key words: Ecological Civilization; Low-carbon Development; Zero-carbon Development; Evaluation Methodology

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