中国对外直接投资的发展路径及其决定因素研究

经济全球化使得各国经济或主动、或被动地参与到国际分工和国际交换之中，各国和地区间的商品流、资金流、技术流以及信息流的加速运动，极大地推动了资源在全球范围内的优化配置。跨境直接投资已经成为推动世界经济持续增长的重要因素之一，任何一个国家都已经不可能只依靠本国的资源、资金、技术和市场来谋求自身经济的发展，走经济国际化的道路已成为时代的必然选择。当前，中国的开放型经济已经进入了一个新的国际化阶段。一个显著变化就是，中国对外直接投资（outward foreign direct investment，简称OFDI）规模的迅速扩张，2009年中国已经成为全球排名第五的FDI来源国。中国企业对外直接投资的国际、国内背景非常复杂：第一，生产国际化和市场开放化导致国际竞争国内化、国内市场国际化，企业面临更加激烈的国内竞争。第二，在全球金融危机的影响下，不少国家在国内经济压力下重筑贸易壁垒。与此同时，我国国际贸易收支账户持续呈现出大量的“双顺差”，人民币汇率屡创新高，出口面临严峻考验。第三，截至2010年12月，我国累计外汇储备约2.85万亿美元，成为全球最大的外汇储备持有国。巨额外汇储备虽然有助于保证国家宏观经济的稳定，但却加重了国内通货膨胀的压力。而且大量外汇储备以美国国债的形式存在，在美国经济衰退、美元贬值的背景下，其安全性和营利性难以得到保障，中国政府必须积极开拓外汇储备的运用渠道。第四，随着我国经济高速发展和城市化进程的推进，资源紧缺矛盾日益突出。资源企业“走出去”开发新的资源供应基地是我国经济可持续发展的迫切要求。第五，由于跨国公司加强了在华技术保密措施，国内企业获得先进技术的渠道有限，通过对外直接投资可以变被动为主动，直接吸收在国内难以获得的先进技术和管理经验。第六，我国政府制定并实施“走出去”战略，出台一系列的支持企业对外直接投资的政策，有利于促进投资便利化。综上所述，中国企业只有全方位、深层次地参与国际市场和资源的竞争，利用好国内、国际“两种资源、两个市场”才能真正适应经济全球化时代的要求，实现中国经济的可持续发展。近年来，虽然对外直接投资呈现出迅猛发展的势头，但由于历史、制度、经济发展水平等多方面的原因，中国发展对外直接投资依然存在许多理论和实践的误区与空白，所以本书力图对中国对外直接投资展开深入、客观和系统的理论探讨。众所周知，FDI的经典理论起源于发达国家的投资实践，随着20世纪七八十年代发展中国家对外直接投资的兴起，学者们发现传统的FDI理论主要是基于发达国家的投资实践发展起来的，对发展中国家的解释能力有限，才逐渐开始关注和发展用来解释发展中国家对外直接投资的理论。但是目前的关于发展中国家的对外直接投资理论多是在传统FDI理论框架下进行修订而形成的，其论述欠缺全面性和深入性。虽然传统的和有关发展中国家FDI理论仍具有一定的解释力，但由于受到经济环境、所有权优势、治理结构以及政策支持与限制等因素的影响，中国对外直接投资具有相对独立的特性，迫切需要发展新的理论和方法对其进行解释。对中国对外直接投资进行研究有利于丰富和推进发展中国家对外直接投资理论，为相关领域的学者提供理论参考，为中国政府提供政策建议并为中国企业提供实践指导。本书在广泛收集数据的基础上，针对不同的问题运用了不同的研究方法，概括如下：规范研究与实证的研究方法、归纳与演绎的研究方法、理论研究与政策研究的方法以及国际比较的研究方法。本书的结构安排分为以下六个部分：第一部分为导论。此部分为全书作概括性的铺垫和介绍。主要阐明本书的选题背景与研究意义、结构安排、研究方法、基本概念界定以及以发展中国家对外直接投资特点、发展阶段、拉动与推动因素以及理论框架的演变为重点对国内外相关研究文献加以综述，为开展后续研究奠定了扎实的研究基础。第二部分为中国对外直接投资的发展现状及特征分析。此部分首先对中国对外直接投资的发展历程与政策进行回顾，并且在统计数据的基础上运用图表方法对OFDI 进行了较全面的基础分析，得出其现状特点。其次，本书对现状特点进行归纳和分析，深入探讨中国对外直接投资的蛙跳特征，并通过国际比较的方法，寻找其与早期发展中国家以及发达国家的投资特点的差异，力图探求经济全球化下中国海外投资的新特点。第三部分为中国对外直接投资发展阶段定位分析，是本书的重点章节。本部分运用了投资发展周期（IDP）理论判断中国对外直接投资的发展阶段。通过对人均GDP的回归以及FDI流入、流出平衡性的综合判断，本书得出结论认为目前中国已经处于投资发展周期的第三阶段。中国的净FDI投资地位在2008年人均GDP达到3000美元左右就进入该阶段，投资周期明显短于投资周期理论的预期，对理论做出了探索性的修正研究。该研究体现了理论指导个案，而个案又对理论进行修正的研究思路。第四部分为中国对外直接投资拉动因素和投资动机研究部分，是本书的重点章节。本部分在资源基础观的基础上构建适合发展中国家跨国公司对外直接投资动机和战略的理论框架，将对外直接投资的动机划分为资源强化型、资源互补型和资源开发型三类。因为对外直接投资的区位组合是跨国公司战略的实施结果，所以本书通过对东道国区位拉动因素显著性的检验逆向推理归纳出跨国公司的投资动因。在对1998—2008年11年间中国企业向53个经济体的投资情况进行面板数据的实证回归分析后，得出中国对外直接投资的动机及其时间和空间的演变过程特点。估计结果验证和支持大部分假设，中国企业对外直接投资的战略主要是资源强化型和资源互补型投资并遵循“依次多元化”的战略，即先进行资源强化型投资，接着扩展到资源互补性投资，并已经逐渐呈现出资源开发型投资的趋势。检验结果同时还印证了本书建立的具有时序性投资动因理论框架的合理性，因而该部分也成为本书的创新性研究之一。第五部分为中国对外直接投资推动因素研究部分，是本书的重点章节。本部分在资源—产业—制度理论框架下，全面、系统地分析了中国对外直接投资的企业内在可能性、外部或产业和制度等推动因素的影响程度。通过文献以及理论上的逻辑关系找出与这三大因素有着较强因果关系的子影响因素，以可衡量的代理变量为媒介，从代理变量的显著程度判断该理论影响因素对中国OFDI推动程度的强弱，进而找到具有决定作用的推动因素。结果显示，对中国OFDI起关键性推动作用的因素包括：相关的国际化经验（OEM 和外包）、研发支出与研发效率、能源供需矛盾、汇率与外汇储备、资本市场以及有利的政策激励。对中国企业对外直接投资推动力较弱的因素包括：企业的管理水平、学习吸收能力、国内市场需求情况、行业竞争激烈程度、相关产业支持和种族人脉。第六部分为中国对外直接投资面临的挑战与应对策略部分。在国际市场上经历蛙跳式崛起的背后，中国对外直接投资呈现出“似强非强”、“将熟未熟”的局面。中国政府和企业尚未做好充分的准备，面临许多独特挑战和问题。本部分首先发现了中国对外直接投资高速发展面临严峻挑战，然后从政策面和企业面提出了有针对性且可操作的应对策略，体现出本书的现实意义与价值。第七部分为结论部分。本部分基于前几部分的分析，给出了概括性的结论，系统地梳理了本书的研究所取得的观点。本书力求在以下几个方面做出创新性的探索：第一，系统地梳理了FDI理论分析框架的演变，找到 OLI 框架、LLL 框架与资源—产业—制度框架之间的互补关系和内在联系，认为资源—产业—制度框架是更加系统化的研究发展中国家对外直接投资的理论基础。第二，由于发展中国家存在着较高的异质性，本书归纳出中国不同于传统理论上发展中国家的对外直接投资特点。第三，通过实证回归检验以及净对外直接投资业绩指数，对中国的投资发展阶段做出定位，并对全球化背景下IDP理论的适用性需要做进一步修正。第四，将投资动因与东道国的引力或拉动因素相结合，在资源基础观的理论上构建了新兴发展中国家对外直接投资的动机框架，认为投资动机类型具有一定的“时序性”。第五，资源—产业—制度框架在国外学界刚刚兴起，而鲜有国内学者运用它对中国的情况进行检验，本书则从该理论出发探究中国对外直接投资的推动因素。本书的不足之处存在以下几个方面：一是相关数据的缺失。由于相关的代理变量的数据，尤其是企业微观层面的数据很难获取，所以在证明企业差异性资源对其对外直接投资的驱动作用时比较困难。同样原因，在探索企业对外直接投资动因时，也无法直接使用企业层面的数据，只能从东道国的拉动因素推断企业的投资动机，同时无法排除企业出于跟随供应商或者客户甚至竞争者的原因进行对外直接投资而并非受东道国的拉动因素吸引的可能性。二是相关变量难以量化。由于制度因素属于规范性社会变量，所以很难用具体的数据来检验其与对外直接投资的因果关系，只能通过现有理论来论证说明。三是尚未明确拉动因素和推动因素作用力的大小。虽然本书探索了影响中国对外直接投资拉动和推动双重因素，但究竟哪种类型的因素起到更大的作用尚待进一步研究。关键词：对外直接投资 投资发展周期 决定因素 资源—产业—制度框架ABSTRACTGlobalization subjects all nations or economies inevitably involved into the world system of labor division and exchange.The accelerated movement of products，technology and information greatly encourages the optimization of resources allocation.Cross-border direct investment has become one of the critical factors that affects world economy and no economy can realize economic development by living only on its own resources，capital，technology and market.All in all，internationalization has turned into the only way to in the globalization era.Nowadays，China's opening-up oriented economy has entered a new stage.One of the most significant changes is that China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment（OFDI）has expanded dramatically，making China the fifth largest FDI flow sourcing country world-widely in 2009.The domestic as well as international environment of Chinese firms’OFDI is very complicated as follows：Firstly，with the internationalization of production and the trend of market-opening orientation，international competition transferred into domestic market and visa versa which put domestic firms under more fierce competition environment.Secondly，under the impact of world finance crisis，many countries set up trade barrier again to release domestic market pressure.Meanwhile，China's BOP takes on the situation of“double surplus”which pushes RMB to continuous record high and in turn poses rigid threat to Chinese export.Thirdly，China's foreign reserve has accumulated up to 285 million by the end of 2010，becoming the largest foreign reserve holder in the world.The vast stock of foreign reserve，on one hand，contributes to the stability of Marco-economy，on the other hand poses great pressure on domestic inflation.Meanwhile，a large account of foreign reserves takes the form of the USD which is short of security and profitability due to the economic recession undergone by U.S.recently.Therefore，it is expedient to develop new channel of using the foreign reserves.Fourthly，with the fast growing of domestic economy and the process of urbanization，the insufficient resource supply has been an increasing grim issue to deal with.Fifthly，due to the strict security measures imposing on technology，Chinese firms have much difficulty in accessing the cutting-edge technology and the managerial expertise from MNEs’subsidiaries in China.Sixthly，Chinese government has formulated and implemented the strategy of“going global”which was designed to facilitate Chinese firms’outward foreign direct investment.All in all，the complicated external and internal environment is conducive for Chinese corporations to undertake holistic and upgraded internaliza-tion in order to compete for the global market and resources.Only by making use of both domestic and international resource and market（which can also be interpreted as“two resources and two markets”）can Chinese firms meet the requirement of the era of globalization and further realize the sustainable development of China.Despite of the rapid increase in volume recent years，China's OFDI has many misunderstandings and blank both in theory and practice due to the historical，institutional and economic factors，therefore this dissertation focuses on the development of in-depth，objective and systematic study on China's OFDI.As is known for all，the classic theory of FDI is originated from the practice of developed countries.But with the emerging phenomenon of development of OFDI since 1970s and 1980s，scholars found that the explanatory power of these theories are limited，so they gradually came to find solutions by developing theories based on developing countries.But it turned out that these theories are mostly developed under the framework of classic FDI theories，lacking comprehensiveness and depth.Although both the developed and developing countries’FDI theories are still universally persuasive，they are in a less explanatory power situation and when it comes to the uniqueness of China，given the influence of economic environment，ownership advantage，governance structure and support or constraint of policies on the economy.The study on China's OFDI will not only benefits the academic field by enriching and boosting the FDI theories on developing countries and providing theoretical references for other scholars，who are interested in this topic，but contribute to the policymakers and practitioners as guideline to some extent.Based on extensive data collection，the dissertation employs various approaches summarized as：normative and empirical approaches，theoretical and policy approaches，systematical and international comparison approaches.The dissertation is arranged as the following six parts：The first part is introduction.This part serves as the introduction of general background in which the research significance，structure，methodology，basic concepts and literatures are elaborated.In the literature part，the dissertation reviewed the research on OFDI features from developing countries，investment path，driving factors（pull and push）and the evolvement of theoretical framework from home and abroad scholars，based on which the following studies are developed.The second part is analysis on the status quo and the features of China's OFDI.In this part，the dissertation first reviews the history and policy related to China's OFDI.Then by calculating on the collected data into charts and tables，the dissertation comes up with the basic features of the status quo of China's OFDI.Secondly，in the light of the current situation，the dissertation looks into the insight of China's frogleap feature，makes comparison internationally and finds out the distinction between China，first-movers of developing countries and traditional developed countries in an effort to explore the new features on OFDI from developing countries in the ongoing globalization.The third part is a study on the investment development stage of China's OFDI，which is the key chapter of the dissertation.Applying the Investment Development Path（IDP）theory，this chapter makes the judgment on China's IDP stage.By regression on GDP per capita on OFDI and the balance of Inward and Outward FDI，the chapter comes out with the conclusion that China has already in the third stage of IDP，when the GDP per capita reached around USD 3000 in 2008.This result showcases the shorter development path than expected by the IDP theory，which makes exploratory revision on the theory and thus reflects the methodology of interaction between the case and theory.The fourth part is research of motives of China's OFDI from the perspective of host countries’pull factors，which is the key part of the dissertation.The paper designs a theoretical framework upon the motives and strategies for emerging countries’OFDI based on Resource-based View（RBV），according to which the motives are classified into three types，namely resource-intensifying，resource-implementing and resource-developing.Then it is assumed that the location choice on OFDI offers the best fit with their strategy and motives，thus employing reverse reasoning can help us achieve the goal.Applying panel data from 53 Chinese OFDI destinations during 1998-2008，the dissertation tries to tap into the motives of Chinese OFDI and their evolvement through time and configuration.The results support most of the hypotheses and reveal that the strategies of Chinese firms in OFDI are mostly resource-intensifying and resource-implementing，and the resource-developing motive is not clear but already exhibits a vague sign.The results also justify the framework of sequence in OFDI motives developed by the author and therefore may contribute to the innovative studies of the dissertation.The fifth part is study on motives of China's OFDI from the perspective of home country's push factors，which is also the key part of the dissertation.Based on the Resource-Industry-Institution framework，a comprehensive and systematic analysis has been undertaken on the extent of influential factors from the internal，external and institutional push factors.By the guide of literature and theories，the sub-factors which have strong causation relation with the above-mentioned perspectives are found.Furthermore，in order to measure the extent of influence of these sub-factors，the dissertation also finds the related proxy variables as media，from whose significance can be used to measure the extent of pushing power of the influential factors and thereby uncover the determinant pushing factors of China's OFDI.The results indicate the following factors as key pushing forces：the relevant experience of internationalization（i.e.OEM and outsourcing），R＆D expenses and efficiency，the stress of supply and demand in natural resource，exchange rate and foreign reserves，capital market and positive policy incentives.The results also reveal the following factors as weak pushing forces：the level of enterprise managerial skills，the ability of learning and absorbing，the domestic market demand，the fierceness of industrial competition，the relevant industrial support and ethnical links.The sixth part is the analysis on the challenges and countermeasures with regard to China's OFDI.Under the surface of the frog-leaping emergence in the international market，China takes on the prospect of“apparent strength and maturity”.Both Chinese government and firms are not fully ready for encountering many distinct challenges and tough issues.In this part of dissertation，the challenges behind the prosperous development of OFDI are elaborated and the targeted and operational countermeasures are put forward on the part of government and firms，which reflects the practical value of the dissertation.The seventh part is the conclusions.According to the analysis of previous parts，this part concludes the dissertation by systematic combing the main points achieved.The dissertation attempts to seek innovation in the following aspects：firstly，systemize on the theoretical framework of FDI，finding the complementary and internal relations between OLI，LLL and Resource-Industry-Institution framework.The dissertation maintains that the Resource-Industry-Institution framework is more comprehensive in explaining the OFDI from developing countries.Secondly，due to the heterogeneity of developing countries，it is imperative to distinguish China with the traditional developing countries’features in OFDI.Thirdly，employing the regression and net FDI performance index，the dissertation estimates China's stage in the investment development path，and makes tentative revisions on IDP theory in ongoing economic globalization.Fourthly，finding the relation between OFDI motives with pull forces from host countries，the dissertation developed a theoretical framework concerning the motives of emerging developing countries based on Resource-based View，and holds that the motives follow certain sequence.Fifthly，the Resource-Industry-Institution framework has just emerged in the relative academic fields，but is seldom applied to Chinese situation.In this study，the framework is employed to discover the push factors of Chinese OFDI.The weaknesses of the dissertation are as follows：firstly，the lack of data.As the relevant data for variables，especially from the firm level，are hard to obtain，it is difficult to prove its pushing function from the perspective of the differentiation of firms’resources.With the same token，it is very unlikely to use the firm-level data to analysis their OFDI motives，therefore，the pull factors of the host countries are used to help deduct the motives without observing the possibility of motives on following supplier，customer or even competitors rather than the attraction of host countries’pull factors.Secondly，the difficulty in quantif-ying relevant variables.Since institution variable falls into the normative social factors，it is hard to use data to test its causality with the OFDI but through existing theoretical reasoning.Thirdly，the power of both pull factors and push factors are still remain unclear.Although the dissertation explores the dual forces that influence China's OFDI，which type of factors play major role need to be further studied.Key words：outward foreign direct investment，investment development path，determinants，resource-industry-institution framework

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