“三农”工作已经成为中国国民经济和社会发展的重中之重。“三农”问题解决的好坏、快慢，直接关系着中国经济和社会发展的质量和速度，也是提高全体人民福祉、全面实现小康目标的关键。农民收入问题是“三农”问题的焦点和集中反映，换言之，实现农民持续、稳健增收是破解“三农”问题的主线，也是落实科学发展观、构建和谐社会的基本要求，所以党和政府高度重视农民增收问题。2004年至今，中央已连续九年以“一号文件”的形式强调农民增收问题的重要性。但从实际情况来看，与预期要达到的目标相比，收效甚微，“十二五”期间，农民增收问题的形势仍然十分严峻。在此背景下，有必要系统地回顾中国实行改革开放政策以来（特别是“十一五”期间）农民增收演进的历程，总结中国在农民增收方面的经验和不足，进一步推动理论创新，积极探索“十二五”期间实现中国农民持续增收的有效路径，并迈出实质性的步伐，真正解决“三农”问题。本书属于应用研究，在遵守经济学学术规范基础上，总体上采用的是系统分析方法，在此框架下，综合运用了多种研究方法，如规范分析与实证分析相结合、静态分析与动态分析相结合、定性分析与定量分析相结合等。除绪论外，全书共分六章。绪论主要介绍问题提出的背景、相关概念的界定、选题意义、主要的分析方法、基本结构与主要内容、主要创新点及不足之处。第一章围绕农民增收问题作了相关的文献综述，并进行了简要的评价和必要的拓展分析。具体说来，由于在国外没有一个统一的经济学理论框架来分析、解释农民的收入问题，有关的理论研究散见于现代经济学的不同领域，所以，第一章首先按照时间顺序从早期研究和最新研究的视角对国外相关理论进行了梳理。国内关于农民收入问题的学术讨论始于1993年，时间相对比较集中。所以，接下来，从农民收入影响因素和解决农民收入问题的对策建议的视角对国内观点进行了梳理。最后，在此基础上进行了简要的评价，并由此提出了全文的系统性研究思路。寻找中国农民实现持续增收的最佳路径，需要从多个视角进行研究。其中，对中国农民收入的变化态势进行历史的回顾和总结，并在此基础上进行经济学分析是非常必要的。所以，第二章从农民的绝对收入的视角、相对收入的视角和农民收入内部结构的视角对中国农民收入的演进历程进行了全方位的分析。第三章则在利用索洛和人力资本模型进行理论分析的基础上，站在“三农”的高度，从农业、农村、农民内在逻辑性入手，对中国农民增收的各种内部制约因素进行了具体分析，并在此基础上作了综合实证分析。从农民增收模型的分析可以看出，要想使农民增收跳出“温饱陷阱”，一个很重要的条件就是要不断实现农民向非农产业的转移，这就必须跳出“三农”来研究农民增收，即分析农民增收与非农产业（工业和服务业，主要分析工业）、城镇（或市民），以及整体国民经济、社会发展，乃至全球经济的关系。所以，第四章站在“非农”的视角，从“三农”外部就中国农民收入中来源于非农业的部分与各种影响因素（工业、城镇、农产品贸易条件等）之间的关系进行了定性和定量的分析。总体来看，第三章和第四章是从国民收入初次分配的视角，对影响农民增收的内外部因素进行了系统的分析。但是，如果就此打住，中国的农民增收问题还是不能得到真正解决。因为，农民增收问题绝不仅仅是一个“农”字所能解决的，同样，工业、城镇（市民）、贸易条件等这个层次的反哺，应该说是实现农民持续增收的一个必要条件，但也绝不意味着是充分条件。换言之，这两个层次还仅仅意味着市场机制这只“无形之手”在发挥作用。发达国家的经验已经多次证明，没有政府这只“有形之手”的参与和支持，农民实现持续增收几乎是不可能的，即政府在国民经济二次分配时对农民进行政策倾斜和制度构建是实现其增收的第三层次。所以，第五章基于对城乡收入差距和就业结构的分析，得出政府惠农政策的变化是影响农民增收的最重要因素之一，并对影响农民增收的制度制约因素进行了必要的规范和实证分析。第六章则基于前面的分析，从“三农”内部、外部改革及制度构建三个层面，就中国农民持续增收问题提出了最优的路径选择。FOREWORDAt present,the work on the“three-dimensional rural issues”has been becoming more and more important with the development of national economy in China.The solution to the“three-dimensional rural issues”concerned the quality as well as the speed of economy development directly,being the key to improving the life quality and to achieving the goal of ensuring a moderately prosperous society.The income for the peasants has become the focus in the“three-dimensional rural issues”,so that keeping the income a steady and rapid increase is the key.Also,it is a fundamental demand in the scientific out-look on development as well as the construction of harmony society,which cau-ses a high value on peasants' income from the Party and government.From 2004,the increase of peasants'income has been emphasized in a form of“First Document”for nine consecutive years from the Central Committee.But as it stands,it brought less result than we have expected.The prospect of the income increase is still in a severe situation during the 12thfive-year-plan.With this background,we should review the development of the income increase,summarize the experience and deficiencies,innovate the theory,explore an effective way to realizing the income increase,and step out.The research of this analysis is an application study.On the base of academic regulation,this study adopted a systematic analysis in the mass,and applied comprehensive research approaches,such as normative with positive analysis,static with dynamic analysis,and qualitative with quantitative analysis.The paper is composed of six chapters apart from the preface.The preface,introduces the background of the paper,concepts of peasants' income,the significance and the thread of this paper,the main research methods and its innovation.The first chapter:a brief introduction and extensive analysis on the increase of the peasants' income.Specifically speaking,for lack of a unifying economic theory to analyze and explain the peasants'income,therefore,Chapter One sorts out the related researches and studies abroad from different prospective chronologically.Domestic studies on the peasants'income have started since 1993,but comparatively centralized,which are sorted from the perspective of affective factors and its corresponding solutions in this paper.Finally the paper brings a brief evaluation and takes out a systematical thread on the whole.Looking for an optimum path to realize the income increase for peasants,we should analyze it from more perspectives.It is of much necessary to review and summarize the development of the income increase,and carry out economic analysis.Therefore,Chapter Two take a general analysis on the development of the peasants' income from the perspective of absolute and relative income,as well as the inner construction.The Third chapter:on the base of Solow growth model and the human resources model,from perspective of agriculture,rural area,and peasant respectively,the paper takes a positive analysis on the inner affective factors of“three-dimensional rural issues”.Through the peasant growth model,we can see that to jump out of the“Adequate Food and Clothing Trap”,the important condition is to make the peasants realize the diversion to the non-agricultural industries.That makes us have to analyze the income increase without the restriction of farmers,rural areas and agriculture production.That is to analyze the income increase and nonagricultural industries（industry and service industry,mainly analyze the industry）,cities and towns（or citizens）,and national economy,social development,as well as the global economy.Therefore,the fourth chapter takes the qualitative and quantitative analysis on the income caused by non-agricultural industries and on the relations among different affective factors（industry,cities and towns,trade conditions of agriculture productions）.In general,the third and forth chapters analyze the factors which affected the increase of peasants'income systematically,both inner and external factors,from the perspective of primary distribution of national income.However,the problem of the increase of the peasants' income would not be solved,if we stop here.It can not be solved within the rural issues—farmers,agriculture,and rural areas;equivalently,industry,cities and towns（citizens）and trade conditions are essential but not sufficient to realize the income increase.In other words,the two levels are just effects that the market,an invisible hand,played.The experience from the developed countries has proved that without the participation and support of the government,a visible hand,it is impossible to realize the increase of the peasants' income.During the secondary distribution,the policy support to the farmers and system construction become the third level to realize the income increase.So,on the base of analysis on the income gap between the urban and the rural areas,as well as the occupational pattern,the fifth chapter draws that the policy of agriculture preference is one of the most factors which affect the increase of the peasants' income.Meanwhile,Chapter Six also takes essential normative and positive analysis on the restrictive factors which affect the income increase.The sixth chapter suggests an optimum path on the increase of peasants'income,from the interior,external,and system level.
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